The network’s edge, and eventually connections between the core and edge, will become increasingly wireless in years ahead.
By Frank Murawski, FTM Consulting Inc.
Recently a slew of new technologies have emerged that have implications for the structured cabling systems (SCS) market. Technologies such as cloud computing, virtualization, wireless and unified communications are among these major technologies that did not even exist five years ago. In analyzing each of these new technologies, wireless is expected to have the most significant impact on the SCS market.
Several significant developments in wireless technologies will slow down future SCS market growth. This includes the performance level of wireless with 802.11n and even further into the future with 802.11ac and 802.11ad being equal to cabled networks. Prior to these technologies, wireless could not support Gigabit speeds. Another development has been the rapid deployment of mobile devices, such as newer smartphones and tablets, especially the Apple iPad. We view the iPad as a game changer not only for its universal acceptance, but also its future capabilities for supporting business applications. New enterprise applications are only now starting to be developed for the iPad. Apple has not only opened its operating system for application development, but also has a built-in sales channel via its online iTunes store. Information technology departments are now evaluating the prospects for allowing mobile devices to access their enterprise networks.
We expect wireless to be deployed initially at the network’s edge and gradually work into the network between the core and the edge. We believe the core network will remain primarily a cabled SCS. In addition, the higher-bandwidth applications, such as data centers and video transport, will continue to be cabled systems. In our latest study, “Wireless Impact on the SCS Market,” we have analyzed wireless implications to all of the SCS providers over three differing time periods: near term (over the next two years); mid term (over the next three to five years); and far term (beyond five years). We have also factored into our analysis the sunken investment in existing networks.
In the near term, wireless access is being added to the existing network edge, which will require additional cabling to the wireless access points. In the midterm, new network deployments, especially in small offices (think of remote sales offices), will opt to go primarily to a wireless network. In the far term, major upgrades of enterprises’ networks will start viewing wireless as a viable option.
As a result, SCS market growth is forecast to decline from 22.9 percent in 2011 to a 14.7-percent growth rate by 2016. Beyond 2016, we expect even smaller growths, in the single-digit range.
Frank Murawski is president of FTM Consulting Inc. (www.ftmconsultinginc.com).
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