40G bulls see 10G Ethernet server ports surpassing 1G within 2 years

Propounding "a more bullish outlook on server migration to 40 Gbps," Dell'Oro expects 10 Gbps to surpass 1 Gbps Ethernet controller and adapter shipments during the 2015-2016 timeframe.

In a newly released 5-Year Forecast Report, Dell’Oro Group says that it expects the market for 10 Gbps server ports to grow approximately five-fold by 2017, surpassing 1 Gbps server ports for the first time by 2015.

“We believe two main factors will drive the crossover point between 1 Gbps and 10 Gbps port shipments on servers between 2015 and 2016 -- namely price declines on 10 Gbps switches, and improvements to 10G Base-T technology that is very important for small and medium businesses,” asserts Sameh Boujelbene, senior analyst covering controller and adapter market research at Dell’Oro Group.

The new report discusses the mix between the various connectivity options on servers (1 Gbps, 10 Gbps and 40 Gbps) as well as the mix between fiber, 10G Base-T, DAC and KR. Dell’Oro also predicts that 40 Gbps migration will be faster than 10 Gbps, despite potential interim speeds such as 20 Gbps that are expected to be introduced to the market as early as 2014.

Related: 10GBase-T equipment availability and the future of copper media

“Nevertheless, we still expect a significant portion of the server offerings based on Grantley, Intel’s next server platform planned for 2014/2015, to deploy 1 Gbps as the default network connection," reveals Infonetics' Boujelbene. "Server vendors are under tremendous pricing pressure from Taiwan-based server contract manufacturers (aka ODMs), and deploying 10 Gbps as the default network connection could put them at a disadvantage."

Dell’Oro's Group Controller and Adapter 5-Year Forecast Report includes tables covering manufacturers’ revenue, average selling prices, and port shipments for 1 Gbps, 10 Gbps and 40 Gbps Ethernet as well as Fibre Channel over Ethernet controllers and adapters. To purchase the report, contact Julie Learmond-Criqui at +1.650.622.9400 x244 or email julie@DellOro.com.

Resource: Free application guide links fiber-optic infrastructure, 10-to-40 GbE data center switches

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