A new study by FTM Consulting that examines the market for industrial-environment cabling systems says that a compound growth rate of 160% through 2006 is possible, as Ethernet deployment in these environments takes off over the next several years. "Since the market is in its embryonic stage, its potential growth is expected to be outstanding," FTM said in announcing the study.
"Ethernet usage in the industrial environment is poised to take off," says Frank Murawski, president of FTM. "The agreement on the top-level application protocol standard for Ethernet using OPC seems likely. This, in conjunction with the ability to connect legacy Fieldbus devices to Ethernet, is one of the final hurdles for the acceptance of Ethernet. The need to seamlessly tie in the industrial systems to existing office LAN systems is a necessity for enterprises to gain efficiencies and be competitive."
FTM says deployment of industrial cabling systems will come in two waves. The first wave will include the larger enterprises that have a substantial in-place IT LAN structure. Currently, enterprises like these need capabilities such as real-time monitoring of inventory levels from the factory floor level. These initial Ethernet sites will interconnect distributed LAN switches to programmable logic controllers (PLCs).
The second deployment wave will be the extension of Ethernet cabling from the PLCs down to the input/output devices, both sensors and drivers. The PLCs typically are housed in environmentally sealed enclosures, FTM says, but the input/output devices usually are exposed to the harsh industrial environment. "This has many product implications for the cabling-system suppliers," Murawski said. "There are enormous growth opportunities for both copper cabling system suppliers and fiber-cabling system suppliers." Murawski expects copper-cabling dominance in this market, as the hardened copper connection devices command premium prices. However, fiber cabling, primarily used in the backbone, will still be a sizeable market-over $500 million-in 2006.
A key finding in FTM's study is that the apparatus share of the market is projected to be larger than the cable-media share. The implication is that apparatus suppliers can take a primary supplier role in this industry-unlike its secondary role in the commercial office building data-communications market. Murawski indicated that cable shipments always outweighed apparatus shipments in the commercial-building market. "This is a real opportunity for the apparatus suppliers to take the leadership role pulling through cable system suppliers' products," he said.