Spending on high-speed Internet access services in the United States will reach an estimated $17.0 billion in 2004, up 30.5% from 2003, according to the Telecommunications Industry Association's 2004 Telecommunications Market Review and Forecast.
By the end of 2007, spending is expected to reach $24.8 billion, representing a 17.5% compound annual growth rate, 2004-2007.
U.S. high-speed subscribers will also expand at double-digit rates, growing from an estimated 28.5 million in 2004 to more than 47 million in 2007.
High-speed Internet access consists of cable modems, digital subscriber lines (DSL), fixed wireless (i.e. local multipoint distribution service [LMDS]), fiber-to-the-home, satellite and third-generation wireless. Cable operators continue to dominate the high-speed access market as a result of their early entrance and widespread availability.
The cable modem market expanded to 12.9 million subscribers in 2003, with revenues increasing 44.1% to $6.9 billion. The TIA expects double-digit increases in cable modem subscribership through 2006, with growth dropping to 8.7% in 2007. Cable modem subscribers will total an estimated 22.4 million in 2007, representing a 14.8% CAGR from 16.0 million in 2004. Cable modem service revenues will grow from an expected $8.4 billion in 2004 to $10.5 billion in 2007, increasing at a 10.9% CAGR.
Other key findings on the high-speed access market include:
* In addition to cable modem and DSL subscribers, there are more than 800,000 subscribers to other high-speed services, a figure projected to reach 7.2 million by 2007. The largest service is fixed wireless which is expected to reach nearly 2.6 million subscribers by 2007.
* Fiber-to-the-home is gaining traction. Fiber will emerge as an alternative to cable and DSL in rural and underserved areas, reaching an estimated 1.4 million households by 2007.
* Satellites also have broadband capacity. Satellite high-speed Internet subscribers will reach a projected 2 million by 2007.
The TIA is based in Arlington, VA. For more information visit www.tiaonline.org.