10G / 40G / 100G optical transceivers market to hit nearly $1.5B by 2014, driven by SFP+ and tunable XFP
Infonetics Research contends that service providers and enterprises have a strong preference for 100G technology if it is priced right, with less urgency surrounding 40G coherent technology and widespread acceptance of both 10G SFP+ and tunable XFP protocols.
Infonetics Research has released a detailed report tracking 10 Gigabit (10G), 40 Gigabit (40G), and 100 Gigabit (100G) optical transceivers and transponders sold into the optical transport, carrier routing and switching, and enterprise cabling and connector markets.
"Our conversations with service providers and enterprises indicate they have a strong preference for 100G technology provided it is at the right price, less urgency surrounding 40G coherent technology, and wide-scale acceptance of both 10G SFP+ and tunable XFP," comments Andrew Schmitt, Infonetics Research's directing analyst for optical.
He adds, "Based on our optical transport, router, switch, and enterprise equipment forecasts, combined with our service provider deployment models, we expect 100G pricing to reach twice that of 40G in 2013, resulting in a rapid shift to 100G. By 2014, 40G and 100G modules will make up roughly half of the world's total 10G/40G/100G optical transceiver and transponder revenue."
The report, "10G/40G/100G Optical Transceivers Market Size and Forecasts", is billed as the first to analyze the optical transceiver and transponder market by module, reach, wavelength, and form factor. It uses end-market projections of carrier preferences and equipment shipments to drive component forecasts. Highlights of the report include:
-- 10G, 40G, and 100G transceiver and transponder revenue is forecasted to grow to $1.44 billion worldwide by 2014, driven by 10G SFP+ and tunable XFP technology, and by spikes in future 40G and 100G adoption
-- Tunable XFPs are the major 10G growth opportunity, as they eliminate inventory management issues with fixed-wavelength modules, fulfill the need for tunability as ROADM-based networking rises in popularity, and replace the more costly 300-pin format.
-- Meanwhile, SFP+ is replacing XFP, driven by strong growth in 850nm modules for 10 Gigabit Ethernet (10GbE) and 8/16G Fibre Channel applications.
-- Shipments of next generation 40G long-range (LR) and short-range (SR) optical transceivers will begin in 2010, primarily for enterprise and IP router applications.
-- Revenue for 40G long-reach interfaces jumped 52% in 2009 over 2008, to $114.6 million, while revenue for 40G 300-pin short- and intermediate-reach interfaces dropped 35%, driven by price erosion and demand weakness
-- During the 2011-2012 timeframe, shipments of DQPSK transceivers are expected to outstrip those of DPSK, as the cost differential between the two drops
-- Worldwide revenue is forecast to grow nearly 10-fold from 2009 to 2014 for tunable DQPSK 40G optical transceivers.
The report provides in-depth analysis, market size, and forecasts through 2014 for manufacturer revenue and units shipped for 10G, 40G, and 100G optical transceivers and transponders. Specifically, the report tracks the following long and short/intermediate reach optical transceivers/transponders:
-- 10G modules by tunable, WDM (fixed C-band), 1550nm, 1310nm, and 850nm wavelengths, split by form-factor: 300 pin, small form-factor pluggable (SFP+), 10G small form-factor pluggable (XFP), and Other (including X2, XENPAK, and 300 pin).
-- 40G modules by tunable, 1310nm, and 850nm wavelengths, split by form-factor: DPSK, DQPSK, opto duo-binary (ODB) and Other, 300 pin SFI-5, 40GBase-LR4, and 40GBase-SR4.
-- 100G modules by tunable, 1310nm, and 850nm wavelengths, split by form-factor: 100 DWDM, 100GBase-LR4 (aka 4x25G non-return-to-zero, or NRZ), and 100GBase-SR10 (aka 10x10G).
Vendors providing products in the optical transceiver market include Avago, APAC Opto Electronics, Delta, Emcore, Finisar, Fujitsu, Furukawa / Fitel, Hitachi Cable, JDS Uniphase, Metco, NeoPhotonics, Oclaro / Bookham, Oplink, Opnext, Optoway, Santur, SEI, Source Photonics / MRV, Sumitomo / Excelight, Syntune, WTD, Yokogawa, and others.
Port forecasts in the report are based on Infonetics Research's 10G/40G/100G ports forecast, which aggregates trends from a wide range of enterprise, carrier routing and switching, and optical transport equipment.