TIA forecasts short-term loss, then recovery by 2010

In its 2009 ICT Market Review & Forecast, an annual market intelligence report of data and analysis, the Telecommunications Industry Association says that while revenue for the information and communications technology industry (ICT) will remain weak in 2010, with a modest 1.2% increase, the longer-term outlook is much brighter.

In its 2009 ICT Market Review & Forecast, an annual market intelligence report of data and analysis, the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA; www.tiaonline.org) says that while revenue for the information and communications technology industry (ICT) will remain weak in 2010, with a modest 1.2% increase, the longer-term outlook is much brighter. Globally, TIA projects a strong rebound for the ICT industry after 2010, citing a 6.4% revenue growth in 2011 and a 7.9% increase in 2012.

For the first time in its 23 years of forecasting for the ICT industry, the TIA is projecting a 3.1% decline in revenue for the overall global market in 2009, due to global economic conditions. In the U.S., the TIA says, revenue will see a 5.5% decline in 2009.

For the U.S., telecommunications revenue is expected to decrease by 6.4% in the next two years, but rebound by 14.4% during 2011-12. The effects of the current Stimulus Package, which carves out investment dollars for broadband, is expected to enable growth throughout the ICT industry and beyond.

“Broadband will be a driver for recovery in all areas, from healthcare IT to smart grid technology, public safety networks, to education, as well as for businesses and consumers,” says Grant Seiffert, TIA president. “While TIA was instrumental in obtaining the $7.2 billion for broadband, other funding for energy, health IT, and R&D will also spur recovery, especially in reviving some of the hundreds of thousands of jobs lost recently. The sum of increased productivity and revenue amongst all other industry segments whose growth broadband deployment contributes to is often underrated and perhaps immeasurable.”

Growing demand for high-volume data applications is driving all segments, say independent analysts at Wilkofsky Gruen Associates, who help to develop the Market Review & Forecast. Despite the recession, TIA predicts that wireless and business data revenue will grow by 73% during the next four years to $110 billion in 2012, from $64 billion in 2008.

Further analysis shows that economic recovery during 2011-12 will be driven by pent-up demand for equipment upgrades. Growth in data traffic will strain network capacity and stimulate investment; availability of financing will fuel investment; and broadband growth will expand the platform for VoIP and IPTV.

The TIA is offering an interactive version of the Market Review & Forecast as part of the new TIA Market Intelligence Service. TelecomTV is collaborating with TIA in offering the new online service, augmented by value-adds such as news updates, webinars, and industry analysis.

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