Dell’Oro Expects Telecom Capex to Decline in 2026

Worldwide telecom capital expenditures are expected to decline in 2026 following flat spending in 2025, according to a press release from Dell’Oro Group.

According to its Telecom Capex Report, the group estimates that capex among roughly 50 major service providers (of whom represent about 80% of global telecom investment) was stable in 2025. One of the report’s highlights is that spending is projected to decrease 2% in 2026 and increase at a 1% compound annual growth rate through 2030.

“We’re seeing an interesting dynamic between long-term optimism and near-term visibility,“ said Stefan Pongratz, Vice President at Dell’Oro Group. “Operators remain optimistic about the long-term network vision, particularly as AI drives new demand, but in the short term they are taking a more cautious stance, with many planning to moderate capex,” Pongratz added.

Dell’Oro notes that telecom equipment manufacturer revenue increased year-over-year in 2025. The group also estimates that roughly half of that growth is from cloud providers. At the same time, service provider revenues are expected to grow at approximately 2% annually and gradually increasing over time.

The report projects that the capex-to-revenue ratio will approach 14% by 2029, while wireless capital intensity is anticipated to reach approximately 11% (decreasing by seven percentage points from the 5G peak).

The trends apply across major telecom infrastructure areas that Dell’Oro covers, including    optical networks, RAN, and service provider routing and switching.

Overall, the data suggests a more constrained short-term stance on investment even with long-term drivers such as AI, cloud, etc continue to impact operators’ network visions. For a deeper dive into the group’s findings, the full bi-annual report can be purchased from Dell’Oro.