As reported at Cablinginstall.com's sister site, Lightwave, this year hasn’t been so bad for optical transceiver sales, earnings statements be damned, asserts the fiber-optic communications industry analysis firm LightCounting in a new report.
By the end of 2012, sales of 40/100G optical transceivers will have doubled, claims the firm. However, the analysis finds that 10 Gigabit Ethernet modules have represented the lion’s share of the market in 2012, accounting for more than 50% of sales. LightCounting says that 100 Gigabit Ethernet sales could exceed those of 10 Gigabit Ethernet devices by 2017 – provided transceiver developers succeed in creating and offering modules with smaller form factors and lower power consumption.
Just what those modules will look like is uncertain at this point, the report says. The firm notes that transceiver vendor roadmaps contain devices such as the CFP, CFP2, CFP4, and QSFP. Meanwhile, systems houses such as Cisco are creating their own 100 Gigabit Ethernet devices. Ultimately, the market research states that transceiver sales revenues will have risen 6% year-on-year by the time 2012 comes to a close, while unit volumes will have climbed 20%. Considering the pressures their clients and service providers have faced this year, “manufacturers of optical components and modules had a reasonably good year in 2012,” the report says.
Total transceiver revenues for 2012 should come in at more than $3 billion, the firm predicts. That figure is projected grow to $5 billion by 2017. Transceivers for DWDM and Ethernet applications have led the way this year, says the report. DWDM transceiver sales gained 10% in 2012, paced by rapid uptake in 100-Gbps ports. DWDM optical transceiver sales are expected to grow at a 14% CAGR for the next 5 years, amounting to more than $1 billion by 2017.
Meanwhile, Ethernet transceiver sales jumped 20% this year, making it a greater than $1 billion market already. The spike was greater than expected, LightCounting reports. As was the case with the DWDM segment, high-speed devices – in this case both 40 Gigabit Ethernet and 100 Gigabit Ethernet – provided the main spark.
LightCounting's Market Forecast Database for 2013-2017 is forthcoming.